@article{chattopadhyay2018conjunction,
author = {Chattopadhyay, Ishanu and Kiciman, Emre and Elliott, Joshua W. and Shaman, Jeffrey L. and Rzhetsky, Andrey},
title = {Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza},
year = {2018},
month = {February},
abstract = {Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic triggers of influenza epidemics. We conclude that the initiation of a pan-continental influenza wave emerges from the simultaneous realization of a complex set of conditions. The strongest predictor groups are as follows, ranked by importance: (1) the host population’s socio- and ethno-demographic properties; (2) weather variables pertaining to specific humidity, temperature, and solar radiation; (3) the virus’ antigenic drift over time; (4) the host population’s land-based travel habits, and; (5) recent spatio-temporal dynamics, as reflected in the influenza wave auto-correlation. The models we infer are demonstrably predictive (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 80%) when tested with out-of-sample data, opening the door to the potential formulation of new population-level intervention and mitigation policies.},
publisher = {eLife},
url = {http://approjects.co.za/?big=en-us/research/publication/conjunction-factors-triggering-waves-seasonal-influenza-2/},
pages = {e30756},
journal = {eLife},
volume = {7},
edition = {eLife},
}