Detecting and Characterizing Events

Significant events are characterized by interactions between entities (such as countries, organizations, or individuals) that deviate from typical interaction patterns. Analysts, including historians, political scientists, and journalists, commonly read large quantities of text to construct an accurate picture of when and where an event happened, who was involved, and in what ways. In this paper, we present the Capsule model for analyzing documents to detect and characterize events of potential significance. Specifically, we develop a model based on topic modeling that distinguishes between topics that describe “business as usual” and topics that deviate from these patterns. To demonstrate this model, we analyze a corpus of over two million U.S. State Department cables from the 1970s. We provide an open-source implementation of an inference algorithm for the model and a pipeline for exploring its results.