{"id":171055,"date":"2012-11-12T11:49:03","date_gmt":"2012-11-12T11:49:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/project\/prediction-engines\/"},"modified":"2021-11-11T17:27:16","modified_gmt":"2021-11-12T01:27:16","slug":"prediction-engines","status":"publish","type":"msr-project","link":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/project\/prediction-engines\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Engines"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"asset-content\">Research around information aggregation and prediction, including polls, probability elicitation, and prediction markets.These methods, broadly defined as wisdom of the crowds, are utilized for a range of outcomes: elections, marketing, internal corporate, military intelligence, etc. We demonstrate some serious advances. (1) Combinatorial Prediction Markets: frontend, backened, and unique questions. (2) Experimental Prediction Markets and Polling. (3) Forecasts, Sentiment, and Data Analytics<\/div>\n<p><!-- .asset-content --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Research around information aggregation and prediction, including polls, probability elicitation, and prediction markets.These methods, broadly defined as wisdom of the crowds, are utilized for a range of outcomes: elections, marketing, internal corporate, military intelligence, etc. We demonstrate some serious advances. (1) Combinatorial Prediction Markets: frontend, backened, and unique questions. (2) Experimental Prediction Markets and Polling. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"research-area":[13556,13548],"msr-locale":[268875],"msr-impact-theme":[],"msr-pillar":[],"class_list":["post-171055","msr-project","type-msr-project","status-publish","hentry","msr-research-area-artificial-intelligence","msr-research-area-economics","msr-locale-en_us","msr-archive-status-complete"],"msr_project_start":"","related-publications":[],"related-downloads":[],"related-videos":[],"related-groups":[],"related-events":[],"related-opportunities":[],"related-posts":[],"related-articles":[],"tab-content":[],"slides":[],"related-researchers":[{"type":"user_nicename","value":"davidmr","display_name":"David Rothschild","author_link":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/people\/davidmr\/\" aria-label=\"Visit the profile page for David Rothschild\">David Rothschild<\/a>","is_active":false,"user_id":31566,"last_first":"Rothschild, David","people_section":0,"alias":"davidmr"},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"jenn","display_name":"Jennifer Wortman Vaughan","author_link":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/people\/jenn\/\" aria-label=\"Visit the profile page for Jennifer Wortman Vaughan\">Jennifer Wortman Vaughan<\/a>","is_active":false,"user_id":32235,"last_first":"Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer","people_section":0,"alias":"jenn"},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"mdudik","display_name":"Miro Dud\u00edk","author_link":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/people\/mdudik\/\" aria-label=\"Visit the profile page for Miro Dud\u00edk\">Miro Dud\u00edk<\/a>","is_active":false,"user_id":32867,"last_first":"Dud\u00edk, Miro","people_section":0,"alias":"mdudik"},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"ricardgu","display_name":"Ricardo Gutierrez","author_link":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/people\/ricardgu\/\" aria-label=\"Visit the profile page for Ricardo Gutierrez\">Ricardo Gutierrez<\/a>","is_active":false,"user_id":33392,"last_first":"Gutierrez, Ricardo","people_section":0,"alias":"ricardgu"}],"msr_research_lab":[199571],"msr_impact_theme":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-project\/171055"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-project"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/msr-project"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-project\/171055\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":795068,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-project\/171055\/revisions\/795068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=171055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"msr-research-area","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research-area?post=171055"},{"taxonomy":"msr-locale","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-locale?post=171055"},{"taxonomy":"msr-impact-theme","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-impact-theme?post=171055"},{"taxonomy":"msr-pillar","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-pillar?post=171055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}