{"id":157609,"date":"2008-12-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-12-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/msr-research-item\/immune-system-modeling-with-infer-net\/"},"modified":"2018-10-16T19:57:29","modified_gmt":"2018-10-17T02:57:29","slug":"immune-system-modeling-with-infer-net","status":"publish","type":"msr-research-item","link":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/publication\/immune-system-modeling-with-infer-net\/","title":{"rendered":"Immune System Modeling with Infer.NET"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"asset-content\">\n<p>Graphical models allow scientific prior knowledge to be incorporated into the statistical analysis of data, whilst also providing a vivid way to represent and communicate this knowledge. In this paper we develop a graphical model of the immune system as a means of analyzing immunological data from the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (MAAS). The analysis is achieved using the Infer.NET tool which allows Bayesian inference to be applied automatically to a specified graphical model.<\/p>\n<p>Our immune system model consists firstly of a Hidden Markov Model representing how allergen-specific skin prick tests (SPTs) and serum-specific IgE tests (SITs) change over time. By introducing a latent multinomial variable, we also cluster the children in an unsupervised manner into different sensitization classes. For 2 sensitization classes, the children who are vulnerable to allergies and have a high probability of having asthma (22%) are identified. For 5 sensitization classes, children in the first cluster, those who are vulnerable to allergies, have an even higher probability of having asthma (42%). The second part of the model involves using the inferred sensitization class as a label and 8 exposure variables in a Bayes Point Machine. Using multiple permutation tests, we conclude that the level of endotoxins and gender have a significant effect on a child\u2019s vulnerability to allergies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .asset-content --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Graphical models allow scientific prior knowledge to be incorporated into the statistical analysis of data, whilst also providing a vivid way to represent and communicate this knowledge. In this paper we develop a graphical model of the immune system as a means of analyzing immunological data from the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (MAAS). The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr-author-ordering":null,"msr_publishername":"","msr_publisher_other":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_edition":"IEEE International Conference on e-Science (e-Science 2008),","msr_editors":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_issue":"","msr_journal":"","msr_number":"","msr_organization":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_page_range_start":"","msr_page_range_end":"","msr_series":"","msr_volume":"","msr_copyright":"\u00a9 2008 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. 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