{"id":165871,"date":"2008-01-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-01-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/msr-research-item\/self-financed-wagering-mechanisms-for-forecasting\/"},"modified":"2018-10-16T20:03:23","modified_gmt":"2018-10-17T03:03:23","slug":"self-financed-wagering-mechanisms-for-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"msr-research-item","link":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/publication\/self-financed-wagering-mechanisms-for-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"Self-Financed Wagering Mechanisms for Forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"asset-content\">\n<p>We examine a class of wagering mechanisms designed to elicit truthful predictions from a group of people without requiring any outside subsidy. We propose a number of desirable properties for wagering mechanisms, identifying one mechanism\u2014weighted-score wagering\u2014that satisfies all of the properties. Moreover, we show that a single-parameter generalization of weighted-score wagering is the only mechanism that satisfies these properties. We explore some variants of the core mechanism based on practical considerations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .asset-content --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We examine a class of wagering mechanisms designed to elicit truthful predictions from a group of people without requiring any outside subsidy. We propose a number of desirable properties for wagering mechanisms, identifying one mechanism\u2014weighted-score wagering\u2014that satisfies all of the properties. Moreover, we show that a single-parameter generalization of weighted-score wagering is the only mechanism [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr-author-ordering":null,"msr_publishername":"","msr_publisher_other":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_edition":"Ninth ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC)","msr_editors":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_issue":"","msr_journal":"","msr_number":"","msr_organization":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_page_range_start":"","msr_page_range_end":"","msr_series":"","msr_volume":"","msr_copyright":"","msr_conference_name":"Ninth ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC)","msr_doi":"","msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_s2_paper_id":"","msr_mag_id":"","msr_pubmed_id":"","msr_other_authors":"Nicolas Lambert, Jennifer Wortman, Yiling Chen, Daniel Reeves, 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military intelligence, etc. We demonstrate some serious advances. 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