{"id":333677,"date":"2016-12-08T11:43:04","date_gmt":"2016-12-08T19:43:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/?post_type=msr-research-item&p=333677"},"modified":"2018-10-16T20:00:37","modified_gmt":"2018-10-17T03:00:37","slug":"markov-model-driver-turn-prediction","status":"publish","type":"msr-research-item","link":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/publication\/markov-model-driver-turn-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"A Markov Model for Driver Turn Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

This paper describes an algorithm for making short-term route predictions for vehicle drivers. It uses a simple Markov model to make probabilistic predictions by looking at a driver\u2019s just-driven path. The model is trained from the driver\u2019s long term trip history from GPS data. We envision applications including driver warnings, anticipatory information delivery, and various automatic vehicle behaviors. The algorithm is based on discrete road segments, whose average length is 237.5 meters. In one instantiation, the algorithm can predict the next road segment with 90% accuracy. We explore variations of the algorithm and find one that is both simple and accurate. Video (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a> | Award (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This paper describes an algorithm for making short-term route predictions for vehicle drivers. It uses a simple Markov model to make probabilistic predictions by looking at a driver\u2019s just-driven path. The model is trained from the driver\u2019s long term trip history from GPS data. We envision applications including driver warnings, anticipatory information delivery, and various […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr-author-ordering":null,"msr_publishername":"SAE 2008 World Congress","msr_publisher_other":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_edition":"Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) 2008 World Congress, April 2008","msr_editors":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_issue":"","msr_journal":"","msr_number":"","msr_organization":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_page_range_start":"","msr_page_range_end":"","msr_series":"","msr_volume":"","msr_copyright":"","msr_conference_name":"Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) 2008 World Congress, April 2008","msr_doi":"","msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_s2_paper_id":"","msr_mag_id":"","msr_pubmed_id":"","msr_other_authors":"","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_award":"Lloyd L. 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