We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation—estimating the value of a target policy using data collected by another policy—under the contextual bandit model. We establish a minimax lower bound on the mean squared error (MSE), and show that it is matched up to constant factors by the inverse propensity scoring (IPS) estimator. Since in the multi-armed bandit problem the IPS is suboptimal (Li et. al, 2015), our result highlights the difficulty of the contextual setting with non-degenerate context distributions. We further consider improvements on this minimax MSE bound, given access to a reward model. We show that the existing doubly robust approach, which utilizes such a reward model, may continue to suffer from high variance even when the reward model is perfect. We propose a new estimator called SWITCH which more effectively uses the reward model and achieves a superior bias-variance tradeoff compared with prior work. We prove an upper bound on its MSE and demonstrate its benefits empirically on a diverse collection of datasets, often seeing orders of magnitude improvements over a number of baselines.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation—estimating the value of a target policy using data collected by another policy—under the contextual bandit model. We establish a minimax lower bound on the mean squared error (MSE), and show that it is matched up to constant factors by the inverse propensity scoring (IPS) estimator. Since in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","footnotes":""},"msr-content-type":[3],"msr-research-highlight":[],"research-area":[13556],"msr-publication-type":[193716],"msr-product-type":[],"msr-focus-area":[],"msr-platform":[],"msr-download-source":[],"msr-locale":[268875],"msr-post-option":[],"msr-field-of-study":[],"msr-conference":[],"msr-journal":[],"msr-impact-theme":[],"msr-pillar":[],"class_list":["post-425169","msr-research-item","type-msr-research-item","status-publish","hentry","msr-research-area-artificial-intelligence","msr-locale-en_us"],"msr_publishername":"PMLR","msr_edition":"The 34th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 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