{"id":676140,"date":"2020-07-16T18:20:05","date_gmt":"2020-07-17T01:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/?post_type=msr-research-item&p=676140"},"modified":"2020-07-17T15:20:23","modified_gmt":"2020-07-17T22:20:23","slug":"decision-theoretic-prediction-and-policy-design-of-gdp-slot-auctions","status":"publish","type":"msr-research-item","link":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/publication\/decision-theoretic-prediction-and-policy-design-of-gdp-slot-auctions\/","title":{"rendered":"Decision-Theoretic Prediction and Policy Design of GDP Slot Auctions"},"content":{"rendered":"

We examine the potential for a simple auction to allocate arrival slots during Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) more efficiently than the currently used system. We find that the second-price slot auction has the potential to lower social costs but further analysis is needed to determine which pre-GDP schedules are best suited for an auction. The analysis of these auctions uses Predictive Game Theory (PGT) Wolpert and Bono (2013, 2010), a new approach that produces a probability distribution over strategies instead of an equilibrium set. Furthermore, the slot auction game of this paper represents the first application of PGT to a game of imperfect information and to a pure strategy space.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We examine the potential for a simple auction to allocate arrival slots during Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) more efficiently than the currently used system. We find that the second-price slot auction has the potential to lower social costs but further analysis is needed to determine which pre-GDP schedules are best suited for an auction. The 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